The development of the diagnosing toolkit for guaranteed operation of the complex technical systems in the conditions of the uncertainties and destabilizing risk factors

Algorithmic toolkit for system estimation and forecasting of the guaranteed CTS functioning are proposed, the basis of which is the information platform for technical diagnostics. Algorithmic toolkit for guaranteed CTS operating implements the proposed concept and strategy for solving the problem of guaranteed CTS operating under the influence of destabilizing risk factors and uncertainties of various nature using the principle of timely identification of causes and preventing the transition to an abnormal mode with the estimating the margins of permissible risk for CTS indications. In the structure of algorithmic toolkit methodics of timely detection of situations of abnormal regime and estimation of margins of permissible risk are presented. The essence of the methodic to timely identificate the abnormal mode situations with the estimation of margins of permissible risk is to minimize the risk of the normal mode violation of CTS operating. The visualization of the causes to arise the situations, the risk degree and risk level values of situations is carried out with a view to taking the appropriate decision makers solutions to prevent situations. The technical diagnostic system provides with the necessary reliability the timely identification, recognition and estimation of the risk of an abnormal mode during the predicted period in operating CTS, guaranteeing the timely elimination of risk factors before failures occur. The quality and effectiveness indicators of the technical diagnostic system are systematically consistent with the corresponding indicators of the safety and survivability CTS management system, guaranteeing with the necessary reliability the prevention of complex system failures within the limits of the margins of the permissible risk of various modes. The developed algorithmic toolkit was tested in the study of the functioning processes of the deep water supply system, the closed water supply recycling system, and the electric refrigerator.