The analysis of the conditions of operation of NPP with auxiliary systems in modern EPS of Ukraine was performed. The most probable set of events (incidents) that cause accidents in EPS with NPP was determined. The structure of risks of electrical connection of NPP and TPP with power system and blackout of auxiliary system of power plant under extreme external influences was formed.
Done formalized mathematical description of modes of the subsystems of EPS upon which suggests a comprehensive approach to assessing the risk of emergency as an indicator of reliability of power supply, which is a combination of likelihood of electrical equipment failure in fuzzy information and outside disturbances with statistical modelling of modes of the subsystems of EPS that allows consider the random failure of electrical equipment, stochastic nature of the mode, material and other consequences.
The complex solving of problems of forecasting of residual life of EPS power stations and subsystems electrical equipment and estimation of risk of power supply reliability decreasing in case of electrical equipment failures is in the conditions of an illegibility, incompleteness of the information and practical absence of the mathematical description of the electric equipment processes with the aim of determining the residual life.
