Розробка методів оцінки стану підсистем ЕЕС при наявності зношеного електрообладнання та нечіткої інформації

Done formalized mathematical description of modes of the subsystems of EPS upon which suggests a comprehensive approach to assessing the risk of emergency as an indicator of reliability of power supply, which is a combination of likelihood of electrical equipment failure in fuzzy information and outside disturbances with statistical modelling of modes of the subsystems of EPS that allows consider the random failure of electrical equipment, stochastic nature of the mode, material and other consequences. Formulated stages of risk assessment of emergency in the subsystem of EPS: subsystem of EPS description, identification of possible initial incidents; forecast emergency situations. Developed the methods of determining the probability of failure of electrical equipment based on information available: at the presence of the probability of failure distribution function of an entire assembly of objects or at the presence of the diagnostic variable source data time variation under the influence of outside disturbances.

Proposed fuzzy model and statistical-probabilistic method for determining the failure of overhead transmission lines, which is based on the estimation of fuzzy value of diagnostic variable changes intensity influenced by intricate meteorological conditions. Found that estimation error of the diagnostic variable values equal to 14% in comparison with standard calculations. According to the research developed algorithm of estimate of the aerial circuit probability of failure.

Developed methods for estimation of possible emergency – a negative stability of load centers using a genetic algorithm, which allows the use of practical stability criterion of load center by the voltage.

Proposed the algorithm for determining expedient sequence of voltage variation at the load centers with relation to ensuring of responsible stable of motor load operation. Model-experimental calculations have shown that using the proposed algorithm in subsystems of EPS several times reduces the risk of negative stability of motor load.
The methods and algorithms oriented to executive staff decision making support to develop an electrical equipment maintenance policy and preventive operation of subsystem of EPS.