Analysis of modern risks in business energy market and ways to minimize them in the sustainable development of the state
The methodology of risk management for energy market in the sustainable development of the state through improvement methodology based on risk analysis and selection criteria of optimal stabilization solutions was developed. The mechanism of substantiation of investment-innovative decisions in power industry with taking into account the estimated environmental and energy efficiency criteria was improved. The general classification of the risks of subjects of electroenergy market in accordance with accepted by Basel agreements modern international standards was proposed. The system of estimation methods of states of electric power systems in terms of financial and economic risks, including: estimation methods of cost of risk from violation reliability of electricity supply; determination of the degree of financial risk for production subjects of power market based on the integral method; , method of forecasting the risk of fluctuations in electricity prices based on statistical forecasting techniques that are often used in international practice: the method of exponential smoothing, the moving average method, Holt-Winters method and ARIMA method. Software package (computer program) for diagnostics of energy enterprise states by financial and economic risk level, which consists information system of indicative analysis by financial security level and the concept of software implementation of diagnostics of power enterprises in terms of financial and economic risk based on fuzzy-set approach also developed. The obtained results allow potential investors to minimize the current risk of the energy market subjects.