Development of software for risk operating analysis of electric power subsystems with nuclear power plants
The analysis of the conditions of operation of NPP with auxiliary systems in modern EPS of Ukraine was performed. The most probable set of events (incidents) that cause accidents in EPS with NPP was determined. The structure of risks of electrical connection of NPP and TPP with power system and blackout of auxiliary system of power plant under extreme external influences was formed. The methodology of complex modeling of technical condition and operation of EPS with NPP to assess the risk of accidents, which, unlike existing is to combine of evaluating of probability of electrical failure in terms of fuzzy information and external disturbances with statistical modeling modes of subsystems of EPS, that takes into account the randomness of electrical failures, stochastic nature of the operation, the possible scenario of accidents, material and technical implications was proposed.
The mathematical model of the overhead transmission line of 110-750 kV to determine of total crafted resource performance and simplified fuzzy inference algorithm which is based on the use of fuzzy parameters of technical condition of individual functional units of overhead transmission line was developed. This enables more reliably to predict the risk of failure of overhead transmission line on time interval of observation under the influence of hard meteorological conditions. The maximum error of the total crafted resource performance of overhead transmission line by the algorithm Mamdani fuzzy inference and simplified algorithm is 15.5 %. The method for evaluating the risk of failure of induction motors in terms of fuzzy information was proposed. This makes possible to perform the rapid assessment of the technical condition and the risk of failure of critical motors in the auxiliary system of power plant and subsystems EPS with motor load at emergency operation in the power system.
The mathematical models of power and switching equipment failures of EPS and auxiliary systems of NPP and TPP, which are based on the use of the general totality of events on this type of equipment failures were developed. The identification of parameters of this equipment and adaptation to the real operating conditions was performed.
The method of construction of fuzzy models of specific equipment failure and overhead transmission line with using the limited representative statistical data of failures was proposed. The fuzzy models for assessing the probability of failures of individual elements of subsystems EPS with NPP and auxiliary systems of power plant on the basis of the proposed method were developed.
The method of determining the optimal means of reducing the risk of an emergency in the subsystem EPS and auxiliary system of power plant was proposed, which allows to choose the most efficient means of the set of large number possible of optimization criteria. The probabilistic-statistical simulation of test scheme of EPS showed the effectiveness of the applied methods, approaches and algorithms for the implementation of risk preventive management of subsystems of EPS with NPP at incomplete initial information and stochastic operation of EPS.
The software "RISK-EEC" and "RISK POWER PLANT" on the basis of developed mathematical software was constructed, which allow to determine quantitative risk of emergencies in EPS with NPP and blackout of auxiliary system of NPP during emergency disturbances at NPP and EPS. This will make possible to take preventive economic and technical solutions of improving the power system reliability and safety operation of NPP.