Development of the scenario analysis platform within the bounds sustainable
The information platform of scenario analysis in the form of the mathematical and software support of the decision of foresight problems of identification promising directions of development at the level of large enterprises, industries and regions is developed. Building and evaluation of scenarios is provided with the help of the universal totality of methods and approaches, called the methodology of scenario analysis, which is a complex of mathematical, software, logical and organizational means and instruments for the determination of the sequence of application of certain methods, the links between them and, in general, the formation of the process of foresight.
For simulation of complex non-formalized systems the cognitive approach, which is based on cognitive aspects, including the processes of perception, thinking, learning, explaining and understanding , is proposed. The technology of cognitive modeling, which allows on the basis of cognitive models to identify potential and rational ways of managing the situation in order to transit from the initial state to the positive one is applied.
Methodology for the presentation and intelligent processing of diverse quantitative and qualitative information with the help of the device of semantic networks is proposed. New theoretical and methodological basis of scenario analysis on the basis of multifactor risks, new principles of coherence of the expert assessment, which makes it possible to ensure a reliable future scenarios in the scientific-technological and innovation activity are developed. There are also methods of adaptive strategic planning in the context of sustainable development.
On the basis of the developed tools by the order of the Ministry of economic development and trade of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea critical technologies, which affect the development of the agrarian sector of AR Crimea up to the year 2020 are identified and estimated.