Development of the information-analytical foresight system for social disasters caused by catastrophes and terrorism

An information-analytical foresight system was developed for the problem of social disasters. This system is based on using scenario analysis methodology for timely detection of reasons, modeling, study and mitigation of consequences of social disasters, caused by different reasons, particularly catastrophes and terrorism. Information-analytical system is based on utilizing the qualitative methods tool set, that employ both expert estimation and analysis of unstructured data from available source for a comprehensive study of social disasters, considering incompleteness, fuzziness, unreliability, transience of relevant information. As a result of this system’s operation, scenarios are constructed for prevention and mitigation of social disasters in the context of sustainable development. These scenarios take into account complex multi-parametric dependencies between the objects’ elements as well as between the objects and the environment; A tool set for identification of key objects in the field of social disasters and catastrophes was developed and enhanced. This tool set uses collected documents and human-oriented classifiers (in natural language). Several approaches for using the tool set were considered to achieve the following goals: 1) synthesis of rules for classification of disasters based on textual descriptions (in natural language), using the Ukrainian national disaster classifier; 2) obtaining indices from textual data that is contained in large volumes of texts regarding the corruption problem as a cause of social disasters; 3) detecting trends on the base of text corpuses that was tested on the agricultural domain as a factor of social security; 4) detection of co-occurrence of factors and trends from crime, social and natural disaster domains.

A general scheme of forecast mechanism was proposed regarding the modeling and estimation of processes of social disturbance. The uncertainties were classified, as well as the methods of dealing with them. A model of dissemination of information was proposed, which is based on using cellular automata. A set of practical tasks was defined and implemented, which employ the predictive modelimg in the fields of crime and social disasters, economic problems.

A set of techniques for using qualitative analysis methods is presented. The modified morphological analysis method was adapted for the problem of modeling and mitigation of social disasters, which allowed to assess prevention or mitigation methods regarding different classes of social and natural disasters. The technique of using networks of morphological tables was enhanced to assess configurations of objects in complex systems. A scheme for modeling social disasters, estimating their consequences and expected efficiencies of prevention and mitigation methods was introduced.

The proposed foresight methodology for detecting, mitigating and recovering from social disasters can be efficiently used both for preliminary predictions of potential disasters, and for modeling, preparation and assessing of prevention and mitigation strategies. The proposed methods improve control and provide decision-making support during the disaster situations. The developed instruments allow to decrease the necessary time, finance and human resources for recovery after the effect of a social disaster, including situations with incompleteness, fuzziness, unreliability, contradictoriness of relevant information.

Using the situation-analytical center that implements the corresponding methods, we create the capacity to monitor data, receive timely notifications about potential social unrest, prepare necessary actions for mitigation of disasters.

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